{"id":362,"date":"2023-07-10T06:35:53","date_gmt":"2023-07-10T06:35:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/edi.lt\/analizes-ir-komentarai\/%analysis_type%\/hibridinio-karo-lauke-pazyma\/"},"modified":"2026-10-30T13:08:51","modified_gmt":"2026-10-30T13:08:51","slug":"hybrid-warfare-on-the-field-theoretical-categories-and-overview-of-the-hybrid-warfare-situation-in-lithuania-in-lithuanian","status":"publish","type":"analysis","link":"https:\/\/edi.lt\/en\/analizes-ir-komentarai\/analyses\/hybrid-warfare-on-the-field-theoretical-categories-and-overview-of-the-hybrid-warfare-situation-in-lithuania-in-lithuanian\/","title":{"rendered":"Hybrid Warfare: Theoretical Categories and an Overview of the Situation in Lithuania"},"content":{"rendered":"<style>.edi-en-sum{background:#EEF2F6;border-radius:12px;padding:28px 32px;margin:0 0 40px}.edi-en-sum h2{margin-top:0}.edi-en-sum p:last-child{margin-bottom:0}.edi-en-sum .note{font-size:15px;color:#697586}<\/style>\n<div class=\"edi-en-sum\">\n<h2>Summary in English<\/h2>\n<p>There is no final definition of hybrid warfare in the Euro-Atlantic area, which leaves the EU and NATO room for flexible responses. The note describes it as state aggression that combines conventional and unconventional means of pressure and subversion to exploit a target&#8217;s weaknesses, from propaganda, disinformation and cyber attacks to economic and social pressure, ending in military invasion or a takeover through loyal domestic forces.<\/p>\n<p>It sets out the phases of hybrid war, starting with the latent phase, a struggle over civic awareness, with examples from Lithuania, where the speed, scale and intensity of hybrid attacks have been growing.<\/p>\n<p>The recommendations include steady monitoring of alternative media, dialogue with journalists, attention to organisations active at municipal level and a state strategic communication centre to monitor, analyse and prevent hybrid threats.<\/p>\n<p class=\"note\">The full text is in Lithuanian.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h3>Hibridinio karo ir susijusi\u0173 s\u0105vok\u0173 apibr\u0117\u017eimas<\/h3>\n<p>Euroatlantin\u0117je erdv\u0117je galutinis termino \u201ehibridinis karas\u201c apibr\u0117\u017eimas n\u0117ra suformuluotas, \u0161itaip suteikiant ES ir NATO valstyb\u0117ms veiksm\u0173, pasisakym\u0173, vertinim\u0173 ir galim\u0173 lanks\u010di\u0173, greit\u0173 kontraveiksm\u0173 laisv\u0119. Ta\u010diau yra i\u0161skirta esmin\u0117 hibridinio karo samprata ir charakteringiausios jo faz\u0117s.<\/p>\n<p>Hibridinis karas gali b\u016bti apibr\u0117\u017eiamas kaip valstyb\u0117s agresija, kuri apima konvencini\u0173 ir nekonvencini\u0173 galios ir ardymo priemoni\u0173 taikym\u0105 pasirinktoje \u0161alyje arba teritorijoje tam, kad b\u016bt\u0173 i\u0161naudoti taikinio pa\u017eeid\u017eiamumai. Procesas pradedamas \u012fvairialypiu pasirinkto taikinio silpninimu \u2013 ir u\u017ebaigiamas karine invazija arba valstyb\u0117s teritorij\u0105 u\u017evaldant i\u0161naudojus vidaus politines j\u0117gas<a href=\"#footnote2\"><sup>2<\/sup><\/a>, sukurtas ar esamas lojalias hibdridin\u012f kar\u0105 prad\u0117jusiai pusei.<\/p>\n<p>Hibridinio karo metodai<sup><a href=\"#footnote3\">3<\/a><\/sup> \u2013 prie\u0161i\u0161kos propagandos skleidimas, dezinformacijos kampanijos, sabota\u017eas, ardomoji veikla ir kitos nekonvencin\u0117s taktikos \u2013 jau seniai naudojamos klaidinti, destabilizuoti, palau\u017eti prie\u0161ininkus. Pastaruosius kelet\u0105 met\u0173 hibridin\u0117s agresijos ir hibridinio karo i\u0161puoli\u0173 prie\u0161 Lietuv\u0105 greitis, mastas ir intensyvumas did\u0117ja.<\/p>\n<p>Hibridinio karo keliami i\u0161\u0161\u016bkiai \u2013 mi\u0161rios gr\u0117sm\u0117s, apiman\u010dios konvencines ir nekonvencines, slaptas ir atviras priemones, \u012fskaitant dezinformacij\u0105, kibernetines atakas<a href=\"#footnote4\"><sup>4<\/sup><\/a>, ekonomin\u012f, kult\u016brin\u012f, socialin\u012f spaudim\u0105, galiausiai \u2013 neteis\u0117t\u0173 ginkluot\u0173 grupuo\u010di\u0173 dislokavim\u0105 ir prie\u0161o karini\u0173 paj\u0117g\u0173 panaudojim\u0105.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Hibridinio karo priemon\u0117s naudojamos i\u0161trinti rib\u0105 tarp karo ir taikos, pas\u0117ti abejones taikiniu pasirinktos valstyb\u0117s gyventoj\u0173 s\u0105mon\u0117je, skatinti sumai\u0161t\u012f, nusivylim\u0105, ma\u017einti motyvacij\u0105 ir per tai siekti pakirsti valstyb\u0117s pamatus ir jos suverenitet\u0105.<br \/>\nPagrindinis hibridinio karo tikslas \u2013 destabilizuoti ir pakirsti jo taikiniu pasirinktos demo- kratin\u0117s valstyb\u0117s sprendim\u0173 pri\u0117m\u0117j\u0173 ir valdymo aparato u\u017etikrint\u0105 veikim\u0105 bei suskaldyti visuomen\u0119, suma\u017einant jos potencial\u0105 ir motyvacij\u0105 gintis<sup><a href=\"#footnote5\">5<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p>\n<p>Atsakomyb\u0117 reaguoti \u012f hibridinio karo i\u0161puolius pirmiausia tenka tautai ir valstyb\u0117s insti- tucijoms. Tod\u0117l hibridin\u0117s gynybos tikslas: gerinti supratim\u0105 apie hibridin\u012f kar\u0105 ir hibridin\u0119 gynyb\u0105, diegti ir vystyti visuomen\u0117s atsparum\u0105 prie\u0161 j\u0105 nukreiptoms hibridin\u0117s agresijos, hibridinio karo priemon\u0117ms ir prie\u0161i\u0161kai propagandai<a href=\"#footnote6\"><sup>6<\/sup><\/a>.<\/p>\n<h3>Hibridinio karo faz\u0117s, j\u0173 etapai, po\u017eymiai ir atvej\u0173 Lietuvoje pavyzd\u017eiai<\/h3>\n<h4>Pirmoji hibrinio karo faz\u0117 yra \u201eNulin\u0117\u201c (\u201elatentin\u0117\u201c) faz\u0117.<\/h4>\n<p>J\u0105 sudaro karas \u201ed\u0117l s\u0105moningumo\u201c, kurio tikslas yra silpninti, izoliuoti ir\/ar eliminuoti pilietin\u012f s\u0105moningum\u0105.<\/p>\n<p>Da\u017eniausiu \u0161ios hibridinio karo faz\u0117s pavyzd\u017eiu gal\u0117t\u0173 b\u016bti pilietinio s\u0105moningumo pakirtimas ar naikinimas, vykdant \u201esmegen\u0173 plovim\u0105\u201c<sup><a href=\"#footnote7\">7<\/a><\/sup> ir\/ar siekiant pakirsti pilie\u010di\u0173 pasitik\u0117jim\u0105 demokratin\u0117mis institucijomis.<sup><a href=\"#footnote8\">8<\/a><\/sup> \u0160ioje faz\u0117je prie\u0161i\u0161ka valstyb\u0117 gali bandyti panaudoti vis\u0105 eil\u0119 priemoni\u0173 \u2013 nuo propagandos sklaidos, socialini\u0173 konfrontacij\u0173 k\u016brimo, prie\u0161i\u0161k\u0173 PSYOPS<sup><a href=\"#footnote9\">9<\/a><\/sup>, Info Ops<sup><a href=\"#footnote10\">10<\/a> <\/sup>operacij\u0173 ar \u012fvairaus pob\u016bd\u017eio hibridini\u0173 atak\u0173 (pvz., migrant\u0173 kriz\u0117 Lietuvos pasienyje ar kibernetin\u0117s atakos).<\/p>\n<p>\u0160alis agresor\u0117 parengia savo visuomen\u0119 intervencijos \u012f pasirinkt\u0105 taikin\u012f (-ius) faktui. O taikinio visuomen\u0117je formuoja bei rengia konkre\u010dias \u012ftakos grupes, remian\u010dias agresori\u0173 politik\u0105, su tikslu v\u0117liau jas panaudoti tiesiogiai, v\u0117lesn\u0117se faz\u0117se (pvz., \u012fsiver\u017eimo).<\/p>\n<p>\u0160alis agresor\u0117 parengia savo visuomen\u0119 intervencijos \u012f pasirinkt\u0105 taikin\u012f (-ius) faktui. O taikinio visuomen\u0117je formuoja bei rengia konkre\u010dias \u012ftakos grupes, remian\u010dias agresori\u0173 politik\u0105, su tikslu v\u0117liau jas panaudoti tiesiogiai, v\u0117lesn\u0117se faz\u0117se (pvz., \u012fsiver\u017eimo).<\/p>\n<p>Viena vertus, prie\u0161i\u0161ka valstyb\u0117 \u0161iame etape formuoja ir rengia konkre\u010dias \u012ftakos grupes, remian\u010dias agresoriaus politik\u0105, su galimu tikslu v\u0117liau jas panaudoti tiesiogiai. Taip pat vienas i\u0161 pagrindini\u0173 agresoriaus tiksl\u0173 \u0161ioje hibridinio karo faz\u0117je yra \u201eperbrai\u017eyti\u201c pasirinkto taikinio politin\u012f \u017eem\u0117lap\u012f sau parankia linkme, politiniame lauke kurti kuo didesn\u0119 fragmentacij\u0105, o idealiu atveju, remiantis auk\u0161\u010diau min\u0117tomis priemon\u0117mis, sukurti politin\u012f nesutarim\u0105. Lietuvos atveju prokremli\u0161k\u0173 grupi\u0173 \u2013 \u201eTarptautinis geros kaimynyst\u0117s forumas\u201c, \u201eSocialistinis liaudies frontas\u201c, \u201eSuverenai\u201c \u2013 veikla patenka \u012f \u0161i\u0105 prie\u0161i\u0161kos valstyb\u0117s vykdomos latentin\u0117s hibridinio karo faz\u0117s etap\u0105. \u012e \u0161ia kategorij\u0105 gal\u0117t\u0173 patekti ir grup\u0117s \u201e\u0160eim\u0173 Mar\u0161as\u201c veikla, kuri paskir\u0173 asmen\u0173 pagrindu yra susijusi\u0173 su Rusijos \u012ftakos tinklais.<\/p>\n<h4>Antroji hibridinio karo faz\u0117 \u2013 tai destabilizacijos faz\u0117.<\/h4>\n<p>Prie\u0161i\u0161kos valstyb\u0117s tikslas \u0161ioje faz\u0117je yra diskredituoti politines institucijas, karines ir sukarintas organizacijas, institucij\u0173 atstovus, \u017eurnalistus, visuomen\u0117s aktyvistus. Idealiu atveju prie\u0161i\u0161ka valstyb\u0117 siekia visi\u0161kai panaikinti j\u0173 reputacij\u0105, autoritet\u0105, pasitik\u0117jim\u0105 jais. Tam pasiekti prie\u0161i\u0161ka valstyb\u0117 gali pasi-telkti dezinformacijos, \u0161mei\u017eto, diskreditavimo kampanijas<a href=\"#footnote11\"><sup>11<\/sup><\/a>, d\u0117mesio i\u0161bla\u0161kymo operacijas, PSYOPS ir Info Ops<sup><a href=\"#footnote12\">12<\/a><\/sup>. Ry\u0161kus destabilizacijos faz\u0117s priemoni\u0173 pasitelkimo prie\u0161 Lietuvos valstyb\u0119 pavyzdys buvo 2022 m. paskleista dezinformacija, kad Lietuvos \u0160auli\u0173 s\u0105jungos reforma \u2013 tai neva \u201epolitik\u0117s Y siekis susikurti sau asmenin\u0119 armij\u0105\u201c<sup><a href=\"#footnote13\">13<\/a><\/sup>; arba, pavyzd\u017eiui, kai 2023 m. pavasar\u012f Waldemar Tomaszewski apkaltino \u0161aulius, kad neva d\u0117l j\u0173 dalyvavimo \u201erinkimai nebuvo laisvi\u201c<sup><a href=\"#footnote14\">14<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p>\n<h5>Destabilizacijos faz\u0117je gali b\u016bti pasitelkiamos \u012fvairaus pob\u016bd\u017eio priemon\u0117s.<\/h5>\n<ol>\n<li>Pilietinio konflikto imitavimas, o Lietuvoje ry\u0161kiausias tokio incidento pavyzdys \u2013 riau\u0161\u0117s prie LR Seimo 2021 m. rugpj\u016b\u010dio 10 d.<sup><a href=\"#footnote15\">15<\/a><\/sup>, kuriose, kaip parod\u0117 LRT tyrimas, aktyviai dalyvavo dalis prokremli\u0161k\u0173 asmen\u0173.<sup><a href=\"#footnote16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/li>\n<li>Legitimios vald\u017eios negeb\u0117jimo kontroliuoti situacij\u0105 imitavimas, ry\u0161kiausiai matytas, kai per COVID-19 pandemij\u0105 Vyriausyb\u0117 buvo radikaliai kritikuojama kaip negebanti suvaldyti pandemij\u0105.<\/li>\n<li>Neva \u201espontani\u0161k\u0173\u201c gyventoj\u0173 savigynos b\u016bri\u0173 k\u016brimasis \u2013 toki\u0173 bandym\u0173, anot Lietuvos policijos duomen\u0173, buvo Vilniaus rajone 2021 m.<sup><a href=\"#footnote17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/li>\n<li>Neteisingos prievartos auk\u0173 \u012fvaizd\u017eio formavimas, ry\u0161kiausiai matomas A.Kandroto-Celofano teismo istorijoje ir jos vie\u0161inime alternatyvioje \u017einiasklaidoje<\/li>\n<li>K\u016brimas iliuzijos, kad valstyb\u0117s institucijos negeba suvaldyti \u012fvairi\u0173 \u201eginkluot\u0173 darini\u0173\u201c (reali\u0173 ar i\u0161galvot\u0173), o tokios priemon\u0117s pavyzdys v\u0117lgi gal\u0117t\u0173 b\u016bti 2021 m. rugpj\u016b\u010dio 10 d. vykusios riau\u0161\u0117s.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h4>Tre\u010dioji hibridinio karo faz\u0117 \u2013 tai, kas teorin\u0117je hibridini\u0173 kar\u0173 literat\u016broje yra vadinama \u201ePirmojo kraujo\u201c faze.<\/h4>\n<p>\u0160ioje faz\u0117je paprastai jau dalyvauja prie\u0161i\u0161kos valstyb\u0117s saugumo tarnybos, kurios eskaluoja situacij\u0105, vykdo provokacijas, su tikslu i\u0161provokuoti besiginan\u010dios valstyb\u0117s teis\u0117t\u0105 smurto panaudojim\u0105. \u0160ioje faz\u0117je eskalavimas trunka tol, kol yra pasiekiamas negr\u012f\u017etamas ta\u0161kas, kai yra \u201epraliejamas pirmasis kraujas\u201c ir, \u017einoma, prie\u0161i\u0161kai valstybei visi\u0161kai nesvarbu, kurioje pus\u0117je \u0161is \u201epirmasis kraujas\u201c yra \u201epraliejamas\u201c (provokatori\u0173 ar besiginan\u010dios valstyb\u0117s).<\/p>\n<p>Pavyzd\u017eiui, nors n\u0117ra mums \u017einom\u0173 tiesiogini\u0173 \u012frodym\u0173, kad 2021 m. rugpj\u016b\u010dio m\u0117nesio riau\u0161i\u0173 organizavime ir operacijoje dalyvavo prie\u0161i\u0161kos valstyb\u0117s saugumo tarnybos<sup><a href=\"#footnote18\">18<\/a><\/sup>, ta\u010diau b\u016btent per \u0161\u012f incident\u0105 buvo fizi\u0161kai u\u017epulti ir su\u017eeisti Lietuvos policijos pareig\u016bnai, po riau\u0161i\u0173 aktyviai skleista dezinformacija, kad neva \u201ed\u0117l policijos pareig\u016bn\u0173 veiksm\u0173 \u017euvo viena protestuotoja\u201c, o 2021-2022 m. vadinam\u0173j\u0173 \u201emar\u0161ist\u0173\u201c forumuose buvo platinta id\u0117ja, kad \u201epoky\u010di\u0173 nebus, kol kas nors nepaaukos d\u0117l j\u0173 gyvyb\u0117s, net jei sava valia\u201c. Taip pat, \u0161iai fazei gal\u0117t\u0173 b\u016bti priskiriamas ir d\u0117mesio nesulauk\u0119s incidentas Prien\u0173 rajone, kai asmuo, esantis vietiniu \u201e\u0160eim\u0173 mar\u0161o\u201c jud\u0117jimo koordinatoriumi ir tuometiniu vietini\u0173 \u0160auli\u0173 kuopos vadu<sup><a href=\"#footnote19\">19<\/a>,<\/sup> 2021 m. vasar\u0105 atvirai kurst\u0117 kitus \u0161aulius sukilti prie\u0161 neva \u201ediktat\u016bri\u0161k\u0105 fa\u0161istin\u0119\u201c LR <sup>vyriausyb\u0119.<a href=\"#footnote20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n<p>Paskutiniai trys hibridinio karo etapai susij\u0119 su konkre\u010di\u0173 karini\u0173 priemoni\u0173 pasitelkimu.<\/p>\n<h4>Ketvirtoje \u201esubjektyvumo\u201c imitavimo faz\u0117<\/h4>\n<p>Imituojamas per\u0117jimas nuo stichi\u0161kai, spontani\u0161kai kilusi\u0173 savigynos grupi\u0173 prie neva legitimi\u0173 grupi\u0173, kurios neva siekia \u012fgyvendinti vietos gyventoj\u0173 vali\u0105.<\/p>\n<h4>\u012esiver\u017eimo legitimavimas yra penktoji faz\u0117<\/h4>\n<p>Prie\u0161i\u0161ka valstyb\u0117, pavyzd\u017eiui, primesto referendumo pagrindu siekia sukurti karin\u0117s j\u0117gos panaudojimo teis\u0117tumo iliuzij\u0105, kas akivaizd\u017eiau-siai buvo matoma 2014 m., Rusijai vykdant Krymo okupacij\u0105 ir aneksij\u0105 bei \u0161iuos nelegalius veiksmus siekiant legitimuoti referendumo pagrindu.<\/p>\n<h4>\u0160e\u0161toji ir galutin\u0117 hibridinio karo faz\u0117 \u2013 tai karinio \u012fsiver\u017eimo faz\u0117<\/h4>\n<p>Pagal Rusijos generoloV. Gerasimovo doktrin\u010521, nepriklausomai nuo taikiniu pasirinktos valstyb\u0117s reakcij\u0173 \u012f hibridinio karo priemones, naudojamas jos at\u017evilgiu, valstyb\u0117s kontraveiksm\u0173 ir pastang\u0173 prie\u0161intis, b\u016btent karinis \u012fsiver\u017eimas ir politin\u0117s vald\u017eios pakeitimas yra galutinis viso hibridinio karo tikslas<a href=\"#footnote22\"><sup>22<\/sup><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u017dvelgiant \u012f \u0161ias \u0161e\u0161ias hibridinio karo fazes ir paskutini\u0173 keleri\u0173 met\u0173 \u012fvykius, darytina i\u0161vada, kad Lietuva yra atsid\u016brusi antrojoje (\u201eDestabilizacijos\u201c) hibridinio karo faz\u0117je, kurioje dominuoja \u012fvairios psichologin\u0117s operacijos (PSYOPS). Dar 2019 m. NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence vie\u0161ai ir oficialiai pripa\u017eino, kad prie\u0161 Baltijos valstybi\u0173 pilie\u010dius, \u0161ali\u0173 valstybines institucijas, politines partijas yra naudojamos prie\u0161i\u0161kos PSYOPS \u2013 psichologin\u0117s operacijos.<a href=\"#footnote23\"><sup>23<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n<h3>Psichologini\u0173 operacij\u0173 priemon\u0117s<\/h3>\n<p>PSYOPS s\u0105voka, kitaip nei hibridinio karo s\u0105voka, n\u0117ra pla\u010diai \u017einoma Lietuvos vie\u0161ojoje erdv\u0117je, o ir pa\u010di\u0173 PSYOPS vykdymo principas sufleruoja, kad j\u0173 atpa\u017einimas visuomet yra problemi\u0161kas<a href=\"#footnote24\"><sup>24<\/sup><\/a>. \u0160iame kontekste svarbu pristatyti kelias prie\u0161i\u0161k\u0173 PSYOPS vykdymo priemones, potencialiai padaran\u010dias daugiausia \u017ealos pasirinktiems taikiniams \u2013 asmenims, institucijoms politin\u0117ms partijoms ir kt.<\/p>\n<p>1. Dezinformacijos skleidimas. \u0160io metodo funkcija \u2013 supainioti, sugluminti prie\u0161inink\u0105 ar oponent\u0105; paveikti tiek pasirinkt\u0105 taikin\u012f, tiek ir taikinio aplinkas taip, kad pastarasis atlikt\u0173 dezinformatoriaus trok\u0161tamus ar parankius dezinformatoriaus interesams veiksmus.<\/p>\n<p>2. Refleksin\u0117s kontrol\u0117s metodas. \u0160io metodo paskirtis ir funkcija yra daryti \u012ftak\u0105 oponentui ar prie\u0161ininkui taip, kad pastarasis netgi nes\u0105moningai, pats to nesuprasdamas, imt\u0173 priimin\u0117ti sau \u017ealingus sprendimus.<\/p>\n<p>3. Subjektyvios kontrol\u0117s metodas. Manipuliuoti dideli\u0173 \u017emoni\u0173 grupi\u0173 emocijomis, motyvais ir veiksmais taip, kad galutiniai minios veiksmai, net jeigu agresyv\u016bs, atrodyt\u0173 kaip \u201espontani\u0161ki ir savaiminiai\u201c<a href=\"#footnote25\"><sup>25<\/sup><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>4. Persona\u017eo nu\u017eudymo technika<a href=\"#footnote26\">26<\/a>. \u0160i technika yra ty\u010dinis, i\u0161 anksto apgalvotas ir s\u0105moningai organizuotas procesas, skirtas visi\u0161kai sunaikinti prie\u0161i\u0161kos psichologin\u0117s operacijos vykdytoj\u0173 taikiniais tapusi\u0173 asmen\u0173 reputacij\u0105 ir aplinkini\u0173 pasitik\u0117jim\u0105 jais. Gali b\u016bti taikoma ne tik asmen\u0173, bet ir institucij\u0173, organizacij\u0173, politini\u0173 darini\u0173, socialini\u0173, tautini\u0173 grupi\u0173 at\u017evilgiu. Prie\u0161 numatytus taikinius naudojamas ne koks nors vienas metodas ar priemon\u0117, bet i\u0161tisas kompleksas atvir\u0173, pastebim\u0173 ir u\u017emaskuot\u0173 metod\u0173.<\/p>\n<p>5. \u201eBermud\u0173 trikampio\u201c technika<a href=\"#footnote27\"><sup>27<\/sup><\/a>. \u0160i prie\u0161i\u0161k\u0173 PSYOPS vykdymo technika gali b\u016bti ypa\u010d efektyviai taikoma tiek pasirinktam individualiam taikiniui, tiek ir socialinei grupei ar atskirai visuomenei paveikti. \u201eBermud\u0173 trikampis\u201c, kaip psichologin\u0117s karybos priemon\u0117, veikia kaip u\u017edaras tam tikr\u0173 specifini\u0173 psichologini\u0173 emocini\u0173 b\u016bsen\u0173 trikampis. \u0160ios b\u016bsenos, vertinant i\u0161 prie\u0161i\u0161kos propagandos pozicij\u0173, yra apribotos ir svyruoja tam tikruose r\u0117muose.<\/p>\n<p>Suintensyvinus atitinkam\u0173 labai konkre\u010di\u0173 psichologini\u0173 ir emocini\u0173 bang\u0173 svyravim\u0105 b\u016btent \u0161iose \u201eBermud\u0173 trikampio\u201c ribose tam tikrais konkre\u010diais laiko intervalais, tampa \u012fmanoma stumti tiek asmenis, tiek ir visuomenes iki ekstremali\u0173 emocij\u0173 ribos, kur racionalumas ir kritinis m\u0105stymas smarkiai suma\u017e\u0117ja, o geb\u0117jimas racionaliai analizuoti beveik i\u0161nyksta. Prie\u0161i\u0161kos operacijos vykdytoj\u0173 tikslai \u0161iuo atveju: taikinius maksimaliai i\u0161sekinti; suma\u017einti j\u0173 racional\u0173, analitin\u012f to, kas vyksta, vertinim\u0105 iki minimumo; padaryti taikinius priklausomais nuo to, kas t\u0105 technik\u0105 vykdo, t. y., padaryti i\u0161 to asmens (-\u0173) savo marionet\u0119 (angl.: puppet).<\/p>\n<p>6. Gand\u0173 ir \u0161mei\u017eto skleidimo technika. \u0160ios funkcija \u2013 sukompromituoti k\u0105 nors maksimaliai, panaudojant minimalias pastangas ir minimalius resursus. Jos principas i\u0161 dalies pana\u0161us \u012f dezinformacijos, ta\u010diau skiriasi galutinis tikslas, vykdymo b\u016bdai ir metodai. Pasteb\u0117tina, kad \u0161i\u0105 technik\u0105, i\u0161 dalies tod\u0117l, kad ji vykdoma gyvo bendravimo (angl. eye-to-eye) principu, yra sunkiau identifikuoti ir neutralizuoti, nei kad standartin\u0119 dezinformacij\u0105. Gand\u0173 ir \u0161mei\u017eto skleidimo technikos atveju prie\u0161ininkas veikia \u0161itaip: supaprastintos to, kas ka\u017ekam, ka\u017ekada neva \u201enutiko\u201c, interpretacijos yra platinamos naudojantis vienu specifiniu m\u0105stymo modeliu: \u201em\u0105stymo, paremto tro\u0161kimu\u201c (angl.: wishfull thinking ), t.y., kai norima, kad tai, kas t\u0117ra prasimanytas gandas ir\/ar \u0161mei\u017etas b\u016bt\u0173 \u012fvyk\u0119 i\u0161 tikr\u0173j\u0173. Propagandos srityje \u0161i specifin\u0117 psichologin\u0117 konstrukcija kartais dar apibr\u0117\u017eiama kaip principas \u201eA\u0161 noriu, kad tai b\u016bt\u0173 tiesa\u201c<a href=\"#footnote28\"><sup>28<\/sup><\/a>. Jei prie\u0161i\u0161kos PSYOPS vykdytojai \u012fgyvendina kampanij\u0105 prie\u0161 kok\u012f nors asmen\u012f, politin\u0119 partij\u0105, institucij\u0105, organizacij\u0105 ir tikslui pasiekti pasirenka b\u016btent \u0161i\u0105 technik\u0105, efektyviausi<br \/>\nj\u0173 \u201e\u012frankiai\u201c ir parankiausia auditorija bus \u017emon\u0117s, kurie turi ar gali \u012fgyti negatyvi\u0173 nuostat\u0173 taikinio at\u017evilgiu. Kuo artimesni bus \u201e\u012frankiai\u201c pasirinktam taikiniui \u2013 tuo labiau PSYOPS auditorija tik\u0117s skleid\u017eiamais gandais. I\u0161 dalies d\u0117l to \u0161io tipo PSYOPS organizatoriai auk\u0161\u010diausiai kotiruoja tuos \u201e\u012frankius\u201c, su kuriais taikinys turi\/tur\u0117jo praeityje asmenin\u012f, artim\u0105 ar intym\u0173 ry\u0161\u012f. Pasteb\u0117tina, kad rasti efektyvi\u0173 kontrapriemoni\u0173 n\u0117ra lengva d\u0117l pa\u010dios gand\u0173 ir \u0161mei\u017eto, kaip rei\u0161kinio, prigimties: d\u0117l tam tikr\u0173 socialin\u0117s psichologijos ypatum\u0173 pozityv\u016bs gandaituri tendencij\u0105 ilgainiui virsti negatyviais; negatyv\u016bs \u2013 ilgainiui tik stipr\u0117ti<a href=\"http:\/\/footnote29\"><sup>29<\/sup><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>7. \u201eDid\u017eiojo melo\u201c metodas. Jo esm\u0117: su maksimaliu u\u017etikrintumu pasi\u016blyti tok\u012f did\u017eiul\u012f ir siaubing\u0105 mel\u0105, kad b\u016bt\u0173 prakti\u0161kai ne\u012fmanoma patik\u0117ti, kad galima meluoti apie tokius dalykus. Teisingai sukomponuotas ir gerai sugalvotas \u201edidysis melas\u201c klausytojams sukelia gili\u0105 emocin\u0119 traum\u0105, kuri paskui ilgam paveikia j\u0173 pa\u017ei\u016bras, konkre\u010dius po\u017ei\u016brius, nuomones, pasirinkimus ir j\u0173 motyvus bei elges\u012f, nepaisant joki\u0173 sveiko proto ar logikos argument\u0173.<\/p>\n<p>Klasikinis \u201eDid\u017eiojo melo\u201d pavyzdys, skirtas paveikti didel\u0117ms \u017emoni\u0173 mas\u0117ms, buvo 2014 m. liep\u0105 Rusijos pla\u010diai paskleista istorija apie neva Donbase ukrainie\u010di\u0173 nukry\u017eiuot\u0105 ma\u017e\u0105 rus\u0173 berniuk\u0105.<\/p>\n<h2>Rekomendacijos sprendim\u0173 pri\u0117m\u0117jams:<\/h2>\n<p>1. Lietuvos Respublikos Seimo formatuose (NSGK ir\/ar atskirose komisijose) \u012fkurti atskir\u0105 platform\u0105, skirt\u0105 reguliarioms, detalioms, ekspertin\u0117ms diskusijoms apie prie\u0161 Lietuv\u0105 vykdomus hibridinio karo veiksmus bei kontrapriemones.<\/p>\n<p>2. Sprendim\u0173 pri\u0117m\u0117jams teikti l\u016bkest\u012f kontr-\u017evalgyba u\u017esiiman\u010dioms institucijoms reguliariai teikti informacij\u0105 apie Lietuvoje vykdomas PSYOPS.<\/p>\n<p>3. U\u017esiimti abipusiu dialogu su \u017einiasklaidos priemon\u0117mis, siekiant, kad \u017einiasklaida kartais nes\u0105moningai neimt\u0173 pl\u0117toti istorij\u0173 ar naratyv\u0173, esan\u010di\u0173 hibridinio karo ir\/ar PSYOPS dalimi.<\/p>\n<p>4. Nuosekliai steb\u0117ti alternatyvios \u017einiasklaidos turin\u012f ir apsvarstyti alternatyvios \u017einiasklaidos \u012fstatyminio reglamentavimo poreik\u012f.<\/p>\n<p>5. Teikti l\u016bkest\u012f teis\u0117saugos institucijoms ypating\u0105 d\u0117mes\u012f skirti atskir\u0173 savivaldybi\u0173 lygiu veikian\u010dioms organizacijoms, kuri\u0173 veikla kartais lieka nepastebima.<\/p>\n<p>6. Svarstyti galimyb\u0119 sukurti valstyb\u0117s strategin\u0117s komunikacijos centr\u0105, kurio funkcija, be kita ko, b\u016bt\u0173 steb\u0117ti, analizuoti, prognozuoti, informuoti ir u\u017ekirsti keli\u0105 hibridinio karo aprai\u0161koms.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":267,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","meta":{"_yoast_wpseo_title":"","_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"An analytical note by Dr Eugenija Vaitkevi\u010di\u016bt\u0117 on the key concepts and phases of hybrid warfare and the hybrid threats facing Lithuania.","edi_partner":"","edi_project":"","edi_paper":"","edi_ext":""},"analysis_type":[23],"class_list":["post-362","analysis","type-analysis","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","analysis_type-analyses"],"acf":{"introduction_text":"The aim of the analytical note is to present the key concepts and analytical categories of hybrid warfare, which would allow to better identify the situation and stage of hybrid warfare in which Lithuania finds itself, to assess the processes, trends and events related to Lithuania's stability, security, and democratic governance in the context of a hybrid war. The information on which the assessments in this analytical note are based has been collected from publicly available sources.","remote_url":"","pdf":2567,"author":[263],"footnotes":null,"related":""},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Hybrid Warfare: Theoretical Categories and an Overview of the Situation in Lithuania - Institute of European Right<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"An analytical note by Dr Eugenija Vaitkevi\u010di\u016bt\u0117 on the key concepts and phases of hybrid warfare and the hybrid threats facing Lithuania.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/edi.lt\/en\/analizes-ir-komentarai\/analyses\/hybrid-warfare-on-the-field-theoretical-categories-and-overview-of-the-hybrid-warfare-situation-in-lithuania-in-lithuanian\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hybrid Warfare: Theoretical Categories and an Overview of the Situation in Lithuania - 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